How to QA your slop and stop embarrassing yourself (using Bayesian statistics)

QA your slop, you’re embarrassing yourself

Basic failure rate statistics

Bayesian analysis fast

Posterior = prior + data

🤔 Wait, what's a probability distribution?

probability distributions 🤔 more references references

Prior

Beta(1, 1) prior

🤔 Why Beta(1, 1)? What about other choices

other choices 🤔 Tell me more kerman, elicitation

Update

Update equation

🤔 Why is the posterior still a beta distribution?

conjugate prior 🤔 What if I can't use a conjugate prior pymc

Posterior

Beta(a, b) and 95% CI on fail rate

🤔 What else can I do with the posterior?

sampling and differencing 🤔 What about ???

Posterior predictive

Beta binomial (n, a, b) and failure count

🤔 How could I use this to estimate the cost of failure

sampling simulation 🤔 What about ???

Written on th, by Louis Cialdella