novelty effects in A/B testing are common
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.12893.pdf
import numpy as np
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
n = 20
walk = np.cumsum(np.random.normal(0, 1, n)) + 10
y_c = walk + np.random.normal(0, 1, n)
y_t = y_c * 1.05 + np.random.normal(0, 1, n)
plt.plot(y_c)
plt.plot(y_t)
Turn this into a panel analysis? Outcome ~ User/Cohort + C(time_from_exposure) + C(day of week)
Make sure you do a placebo test to see if your functional form is reasonable
Fixed effects idea? https://theeffectbook.net/ch-FixedEffects.html?highlight=panel